Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
