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Increasing worries exist regarding the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive language has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has provoked a intense war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in last year that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and suggested the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

Amid persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a approach of retaking former lands.

Eritrean authorities alerted on recently that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the army was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war followed, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors remained at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a announcement that the hostilities was over – a move that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

Yet ties have since broken down again.