A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
