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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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